Correction:
That State Farm commercial shouldn't make you cry because of sentiment/nostalgia, it should make you cry because it's really dark and upsetting.
The pattern of the commercial is that every time the man states he'll never do something, the next scene portrays him in the situation he previously stated he would never be in.
In the last scene, he states he will never leave his family... if the commercial were to go on another scene he will have left his wife and children