Episode 47 — Statistics That Prove We're Wrong About Everything

[JulyDiaz 2797]

You're on the 1970s game show "Let's Make a Deal," and you get to pick between 3 doors: behind one is a new car, and behind the other two are gag prizes. After choosing your door, the host shows you one of the doors the car is NOT behind and asks if you'd like to change your pick to the only other remaining door. What do you do?

 

Common sense would prove that the host removing a door from contention has no effect. You had a 33% chance of winning a car and now you have a 50% chance. But what if we told you, by switching your decision, your chances of winning a car would go up to 66%? You would tell us to take high school statistics over again, but you'd be wrong.

 

Today on the podcast Jack O'Brien, Dan O'Brien, and Jason Pargin (aka David Wong) discuss some of the more deceiving statistics in our world that prove that common sense is worthless and our brains are horrible at math.

[DEATHMAN 3317]

Hey gang I had some ideas for some new topics for your epic win podcast:

• Eating Unhealthy Food: Is It Actually More Healthy In The Long Run?
  
• How Injuries Can Make Us Superhuman
  
• Why Brain Damage Actually Makes Us Smarter
  
• Does Losing Sport actually mean u won it
  
• if you Driving Your Car in reverse you gets you places faster than driving it forwards
  
• tie a cinder block to your ankle and jump in a pool like the son in the sopranos
  
• have you guys seen radiolab that show is crazy
  
• or this american lif
  

[Johnny Unusual 525]

Hey gang I had some ideas for some new topics for your epic win podcast:

• How Injuries Can Make Us Superhuman
  
• 
  

 

 

Actually, that would be good. There's the microfractures that Muay Thai fighters make on their shins that make them ridiculously strong (to the point where they can break baseball bats with their shins) and there's that one guy who, after an insane accident, made a career as "the human owl" and could turn his head 180 degrees. And John Travolta in Phenomenon. That was real, right?

[sharklasers 1]

About the Monty Hall problem, they mention regret over changing one's mind and then finding out that the first door was the right one all along, along the lines of "Should have trusted your gut instinct".

 

However, that impulse is not useless! In multiple choice tests, it is very important to learn to trust your initial instinct. Every medical student and prof will tell you that if you go back and second-guess your answers, it is far more likely that the initial answer you gave was indeed the correct one.

 

The real intuition problem with the Monty Hall problem is that the first door was chosen more or less randomly, not because of prior knowledge or distinguishing features.

[JonathanB.Reid 34]

I know you guys have to have sponsors (and we appreciate them for making the podcasts possible), and you have to do the reads in the scheduled slots, but it feels like somebody should have done a rearrange on this one. Somehow, going straight from a discussion about media-fed statistical misconceptions (including a reference to how seeing lottery winners on TV makes people ignore how unlikely it is to win the lottery) to a read for a sports gambling site (including references to past winners who turned small bets into huge winnings). Just saying the placement of that ad could have been a bit less dissonant... unless that's what you were going for.

[Cameron H. 23786]

I know you guys have to have sponsors (and we appreciate them for making the podcasts possible), and you have to do the reads in the scheduled slots, but it feels like somebody should have done a rearrange on this one. Somehow, going straight from a discussion about media-fed statistical misconceptions (including a reference to how seeing lottery winners on TV makes people ignore how unlikely it is to win the lottery) to a read for a sports gambling site (including references to past winners who turned small bets into huge winnings). Just saying the placement of that ad could have been a bit less dissonant... unless that's what you were going for.

 

 

Agreed. I had a genuine chuckle at that one. I was hoping it was on purpose...

[DirkBender 31]

 

 

Agreed. I had a genuine chuckle at that one. I was hoping it was on purpose...

As was I.